IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Miss
Conference USA
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.3	#229
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.3	#250
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.2	#269

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#204

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.7	13.1	14.2

.500 or above	23.2%	39.7%	16.7%
.500 or above in Conference	26.3%	37.8%	21.7%
Conference Champion	1.4%	2.9%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	19.8%	12.2%	22.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Neutral) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 9	4 - 13
Quad 4	6 - 4	10 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	130	Ball St.	L	64-70	28%
Nov 28, 2020	165	North Dakota St.	L	66-70	36%
Nov 29, 2020	272	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	70-71	47%
Dec 05, 2020	168	@ Southern Illinois	L	60-67	28%
Dec 09, 2020	210	@ Tulane	L	68-72	36%
Dec 12, 2020	187	South Alabama	W	68-67	51%
Dec 15, 2020	236	@ Lamar	L	68-71	40%
Dec 19, 2020	278	Louisiana Monroe	W	68-63	68%
Jan 01, 2021	161	UTEP	L	67-68	46%
Jan 02, 2021	161	UTEP	L	67-68	46%
Jan 08, 2021	131	@ UAB	L	62-71	22%
Jan 09, 2021	131	@ UAB	L	62-71	21%
Jan 15, 2021	193	Middle Tennessee	W	72-71	53%
Jan 16, 2021	193	Middle Tennessee	W	72-71	53%
Jan 21, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	L	73-81	25%
Jan 23, 2021	153	@ Texas San Antonio	L	73-81	26%
Jan 28, 2021	109	Louisiana Tech	L	66-71	33%
Jan 30, 2021	109	@ Louisiana Tech	L	63-74	17%
Feb 05, 2021	265	@ Rice	L	72-73	46%
Feb 06, 2021	265	@ Rice	L	72-73	46%
Feb 12, 2021	95	North Texas	L	62-69	28%
Feb 13, 2021	95	North Texas	L	62-69	28%
Feb 18, 2021	171	@ Florida International	L	71-78	29%
Feb 20, 2021	171	@ Florida International	L	71-78	29%
Feb 26, 2021	191	Florida Atlantic	W	69-68	52%
Feb 27, 2021	191	Florida Atlantic	W	69-68	53%
Projected Record						10 - 16	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0				2.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.9	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0					3.1	3rd
4th										0.1	0.8	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0						3.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	2.1	1.3	0.2	0.0							4.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.2	2.1	0.5	0.0								5.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.2	3.2	0.8	0.0									6.5	7th
8th							0.1	1.6	3.8	1.7	0.1										7.4	8th
9th						0.1	1.5	4.3	2.7	0.3											8.9	9th
10th					0.1	0.9	4.0	3.6	0.7	0.0											9.3	10th
11th				0.1	1.1	3.9	4.4	1.3	0.1												10.9	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	1.2	4.0	4.7	1.6	0.1													11.7	12th
13th	0.0	0.2	1.3	3.9	4.9	1.7	0.2	0.0													12.3	13th
14th	0.9	2.7	4.1	3.1	1.3	0.2	0.0														12.4	14th

Total	0.9	2.9	5.5	8.4	11.4	11.6	11.9	11.1	9.9	8.4	6.0	4.6	3.3	1.8	1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	91.8%	0.3		0.2	0.0
15-3	53.5%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	41.8%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	11.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.4%	1.4		0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%															0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.1%		14.7%	13.2%	1.5%	9.2										0.0	0.0							0.1		1.7%
16-2	0.3%		50.9%	41.6%	9.3%	11.3					0.0	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1		16.0%
15-3	0.6%		14.2%	14.2%		12.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.5
14-4	1.2%		13.2%	12.4%	0.8%	13.4													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.0		0.9%
13-5	1.8%		6.1%	6.1%		13.5													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7
12-6	3.3%		5.9%	5.9%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	3.2
11-7	4.6%		2.4%	2.4%		14.8															0.0	0.1	0.0	4.5
10-8	6.0%		1.6%	1.6%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.9
9-9	8.4%		0.4%	0.4%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3
8-10	9.9%		0.3%	0.3%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.9
7-11	11.1%		0.3%	0.3%		15.9																0.0	0.0	11.1
6-12	11.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.9
5-13	11.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
4-14	11.4%																							11.4
3-15	8.4%																							8.4
2-16	5.5%																							5.5
1-17	2.9%																							2.9
0-18	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	13.7					0.0	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	99.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%